Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.060139 0.068021 0.076185 0.085244 0.094988 0.105125 0.116442
2025-02-16 0.043435 0.054505 0.066722 0.081065 0.097309 0.115008 0.135621
2025-02-23 0.035930 0.049388 0.065061 0.084316 0.107001 0.132564 0.163237
2025-03-02 0.030474 0.045553 0.063977 0.087505 0.116132 0.149266 0.189944
2025-03-09 0.024074 0.039438 0.059192 0.085426 0.118372 0.157482 0.206528
2025-03-16 0.018817 0.033933 0.054403 0.082640 0.119168 0.163545 0.220256
2025-03-23 0.016658 0.032370 0.054497 0.085876 0.127325 0.178488 0.244714
2025-03-30 0.014500 0.030451 0.053823 0.087879 0.133770 0.191269 0.266584
2025-04-06 0.012986 0.029286 0.054030 0.090942 0.141532 0.205712 0.290603
2025-04-13 0.010926 0.026889 0.052173 0.090928 0.145071 0.214720 0.307838
2025-04-20 0.010563 0.027356 0.054605 0.097006 0.156867 0.234447 0.338767
2025-04-27 0.008679 0.024764 0.052062 0.095711 0.158483 0.240908 0.352846
2025-05-04 0.007406 0.023204 0.051159 0.096968 0.163931 0.252865 0.374677
2025-05-11 0.005939 0.020957 0.048935 0.096134 0.166448 0.261050 0.391883
2025-05-18 0.005557 0.020991 0.050574 0.101268 0.177546 0.280868 0.424473
2025-05-25 0.005081 0.020710 0.051613 0.105459 0.187337 0.299031 0.455075
2025-06-01 0.003908 0.018419 0.048801 0.103334 0.187794 0.304424 0.468812
2025-06-08 0.002858 0.016057 0.045557 0.100259 0.186658 0.307503 0.479405
2025-06-15 0.002585 0.015846 0.046420 0.103966 0.195666 0.324659 0.508900
2025-06-22 0.002227 0.015253 0.046457 0.106250 0.202537 0.338893 0.534578
2025-06-29 0.001997 0.015020 0.047193 0.109726 0.211252 0.355776 0.563948
2025-07-06 0.001573 0.013899 0.045958 0.109712 0.214578 0.365087 0.583130
2025-07-13 0.001600 0.014570 0.048613 0.116585 0.228641 0.389698 0.623250